Is the SNP no longer the party to lead Scotland to independence and beyond?
Next year will mark the twentieth anniversary of the SNP becoming the governing party of Scotland. Since 2007, the SNP has gone on to win four more terms in office – 2011, 2016, 2021, and this year’s 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. 2011 saw the SNP become the first party in Holyrood to form a majority government – a prospect that should not have happened under Holyrood’s system of proportional representation. Ever since then, the SNP has continued to form minority governments, and in the 2026 election, it finally fell short of the 60-plus seats it once had. Is this a sign that the SNP is losing its grip on power?
The SNP has proved both a popular and divisive party in Scottish politics. It has pushed forward many favourable and popular policies, including free university tuition, free prescriptions, renationalised ScotRail and scrapped peak fares, amongst many more. What divides Scotland – and many of its own party members and supporters – is independence: at every election, the SNP chimes about another independence referendum, refusing to accept the result of the 2014 Independence Referendum, which showed Scotland torn between for and against independence (45% for Yes; 55% for No). Disagreements continue on the issues surrounding the achievement and future of an independent Scotland: what will be its currency? Will it rejoin the EU? How will it manage its border with the rest of the UK? What will happen to the many Scots who depend on trade and employment with UK businesses and vice versa? Still, there is no clear plan ahead for independence or any solutions to the issues it will bring.
The party has presided over many controversies and policy failures, the most recent being the Peter Murrell scandal that found the former executive of the SNP and ex-husband of Nicola Sturgeon, the former First Minister and leader of the SNP, to have embezzled over £400, 000 in party finances for self-interests. Finances have proven to be a weakness of the SNP throughout each government. A recent Scottish Government review found that the country’s spending deficit has fallen to 10.9% of GDP – 6.7 points higher than the UK’s 4.2% – owing to increased taxation, though this may prove problematic for Scotland if it wishes to join the Eurozone, which requires a 3% deficit. Scotland’s public services – housing, healthcare, education, emergency services – have all come under intense strain due to funding cuts and rising costs. Falling teacher numbers and widening attainment gap; universities vying for funding, with some nearing bankruptcy. There is a shortage of nearly 100, 000 homes. Scotland continues to be declared ‘the sickman of Europe’ with drug deaths remaining high compared to the rest of Europe. Prisons are overcrowded and trials are backlogged. On top of all these issues, the Scottish Government continues to deal with an increasingly high welfare budget that is estimated to reach £9.2b by 2030. The SNP turns the blame towards Westminster and the British Government, citing independence as the only solution to eradicate these problems, but it does not elaborate how. Under the Barnett Formula, the Scottish Government receives over £14b in funding from Westminster to help fund its policies and this is set to increase. The Scottish Government spends £2669 more per person than the rest of the UK – yet, the SNP fails to clarify how it will fund many of its policies without UK funding.
The 2026 Scottish Elections results signal a decline in support for the SNP, having fallen by six seats, from 64 seats in the 2021 election to 58 seats in 2026. Voter turnout saw a 10-point fall, from 63% in 2021 to 53% in 2026, signalling voter apathy, perhaps due to the SNP’s continued electoral success and dissatisfaction with the other political parties that haven’t had a chance to form a government – the last election to be won by any other party besides the SNP was Scottish Labour in 2003. The only other pro-independence party is the Scottish Greens, who remain at the margins with 15 seats and who are unlikely to agree to a coalition deal with the SNP after the fallout with Yousaf’s cabinet. The failures of successive Conservative Governments (2010-2024), Starmer’s Labour Government (2024-2026) and the prospect of a Reform Government, are also likely contributing factors in the SNP’s continued governance.
One may wonder if this decline in support is because the SNP, once seen as Scotland’s anti-establishment party, has now become Scotland’s establishment? The party that once promised radical change for Scotland is now comfortable in its seat and it will not enact the change it once promised, because such change would threaten its own political dominance. The SNP has always had an enemy in Westminster. Whether it be the Conservatives, Labour, or Reform, the SNP has had an English enemy to point the blame at for all of Scotland’s problems – even the problems it has caused by its own decisions. When Scotland becomes independent, who becomes the enemy of the SNP then? A unionist party vowing to rejoin the UK? A party vowing to rejoin the EU? Once the goal of independence is achieved, it cannot be said whether the SNP will survive, having achieved its promise – or it will survive, but as a party not looking to achieve independence, but to defend it.
All of the SNP’s policies lead to independence – never beyond it. They can see the light of independence, but never the abyss of problems that would mire a post-independence Scottish Government, from decaying public services to financial mismanagement, from a ballooning welfare budget that will become unsustainable to large spending deficits, and border issues with the UK and the Schengen area. Important questions arise over the issues where the Scottish Government does not have control of – immigration, constitution, and defence. How would a Scottish military be operated and at what capacity? Would the Government, post-independence, be as welcoming to immigrants as it is right now? Would Scotland become a republic with a written constitution or would it continue to operate with the Westminster system, with the British monarch as its executive? Whichever party takes up government following independence will have a hard time restabilising the country, a country so strongly divided over independence. The SNP is trying to prove that Scotland can govern itself, with the help of Westminster: a post-independence government would need to show that Scotland is capable of governing itself without the help of Westminster, lest the country be dragged back into a debate over reunion with the UK.
The future of a party as divisive, popular, and problematic as the SNP is uncertain. It could continue to govern after the next Scottish Parliament Election in 2031. With Scottish Labour and Reform tied at 17 seats each, it is possible that the SNP loses its grip on power come the time of the next election. This fifth term granted to the SNP is another chance for it to prove it can govern Scotland and lead it to independence, having significantly lost the trust and hope of many of its supporters. If the SNP cannot lead Scotland to independence, then who can?
