The end of university as you know it

As international enrollments decline, is the golden age of University finances coming to an end?

In the middle of August, during the aftermath of rioting and disorder across England, and an incursion into Russian territory for the first time since WW2, the newly appointed Secretary of State for Education, Bridgette Phillipson, took the time to film a bizarre ‘welcome video’ for international students coming to study in Britain this academic year. The video isn’t much longer than two minutes and features the Secretary of State herself grinning in front of a vase of flowers, as if trying to woo foreign students into sinking tens of thousands of pounds into a degree at one of Britain’s universities. 

This is something that has never been done before and it is easy to see why. Even just a cursory look at the data shows that British universities are in a very precarious financial situation as a result of their reliance on money brought in by international enrolments. According to the latest figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency, upwards of one in four students studying in the UK in the 2022/23 academic year were from outside of the United Kingdom. Remarkably, this number jumped to almost 40% among postgraduates. 

These numbers have risen consistently over the past decade as universities have doubled down on attracting lucrative, international students who pay big money for degrees from renowned British universities. The largest origin countries for international students in Britain are China, India, and Nigeria; where the growing middle class seeks a good education for their children to get ahead in a competitive job market. This, combined with the agencies that universities pay to travel abroad and actively recruit young people, have meant that the gravy train has kept flowing. 

The University of Glasgow is one of the most notable institutions for doubling down on international enrolments. International students at the University have increased two-fold between 2019 and 2021, while English language requirements were simultaneously reduced. 

However, for months now it has appeared that universities relying so heavily on money from international enrolments have become unsustainable. The Times reported back in March that domestic problems in Nigeria, including an economic crisis, have precipitated a decline in applications, which could cause a major financial shortfall for UK universities. Universities have also blamed new restrictions on student visas on declining applications from Indian students. Earlier this year the British government banned international students from bringing dependents to the country. 

Some have also raised concerns about the British government submitting the enhanced tier of the National Security Act to China, which could further affect international enrolments. Already, as of June 2024, the number of student visas handed out by the Home Office has declined by 13%. Conveniently, the number of international students enrolled for the 2023/24 academic year at the University of Glasgow is overdue for publication. Some university chiefs have warned that the situation makes bankruptcies a “realistic possibility” and the tangible impact of declining enrolments has already been seen. Last year the University of Aberdeen warned that it intended to cut single-language honours degrees, which senior management blamed on a £15m shortfall as a result of a plateau in the number of international enrolments. 

“I have a message for you: if you meet the criteria for entry to a UK university and for entering the UK on a student visa, then the British people welcome you”, says Education Secretary Bridgette Phillipson in her video. But what exactly are those requirements?

An investigation by The Sunday Times in January showed that the entry requirements for international students to study an undergraduate degree at a British university are significantly lower than those offered to home students. In some cases, for example at the University of Bristol, entry requirements which were advertised as AAA at A-level for UK students were reduced to CCC for international students who pay thousands more than some of their domestic classmates. Again, this inequity in entry requirements is an issue at the University of Glasgow, where the Glasgow International College offers entry into a one-year access course that leads into the second year of a normal honours degree with reduced requirements for international students.

Even if the pessimists are wrong and enrolments sustain themselves or even increase this year, what has been a golden age for university finances can’t last forever. Eventually, students will stop coming, and the money will stop flowing. The question remains however: what will happen when this racket all comes crashing down? It’s difficult to see how small universities like the University of the West of Scotland or Glasgow Caledonian can continue to function without being bought out by their larger competitors, or how niche courses in the arts can continue to run when the coffers dry up.

Nonetheless, this won’t be the end of Higher Education in its entirety. Some universities will lead the way in new funding models and come out on top. It would only help if the Government could get ahead of the curve and work with universities to strategise how this may look, rather than filming embarrassing, grovelling pleas.